🍂 Rising Rates, Rising Inventory… What's Next?
Fall is officially here, but between the warm weather, school schedules, and sports, it certainly hasn't felt like things are slowing down!
As I've mentioned before, fall is one of the craziest times of the year for our family. Between school, soccer, flag football, and everything else, our calendar fills up quickly.
This year, I signed up to coach two of my boys' soccer teams. That seemed manageable enough.
Well… that lasted about two weeks. 😂
After watching my oldest son's second game, I found myself walking down to the field and volunteering to help his coach.
I couldn't just sit there anymore!
The head coach was doing his best to manage 15 boys who weren't exactly making his job easy. Having played soccer for more than 35 years, including at the collegiate level, I knew I could help.
The challenge for me wasn't jumping in. It was making sure I didn't take over.
After all, it's his team. My job is to support him, share my experience, and help him succeed.
So now I'm unofficially coaching three teams again. ⚽⚽⚽
Have you ever found yourself in that situation? You see someone who could use a hand, and you just can't sit on the sidelines?
🏡 Real Estate Isn't All That Different
That experience got me thinking about what I do every day in real estate.
I'm now in my 16th year as a Santa Barbara Realtor, and I've been fortunate to consistently rank among the top 100 agents in our area.
Over those years, I've helped clients navigate just about every type of transaction imaginable:
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Residential homes and vacant land
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Trust and probate sales
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Short sales and foreclosures
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Commercial sales and leases
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VA financing and assumable loans
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Seller financing and creative transactions
And if there's one thing I've learned, it's that experience matters most when things get complicated.
Just like coaching, my job isn't to take over.
It's your home. Your money. Your decision.
My job is to come alongside you, help you understand your options, anticipate problems, and develop creative solutions that other people may not have considered.
And in today's real estate market, that experience is becoming increasingly valuable.
📈 Rising Rates, Rising Inventory & Changing Expectations
We're seeing a shift in the housing market.
For years, sellers held most of the negotiating power. Homes sold quickly, prices climbed, and buyers often had to compete aggressively just to get an offer accepted.
Today, things look different.
Three factors are changing the market:
📈 Interest Rates: Higher mortgage rates continue to put pressure on buyers' purchasing power.
🏡 Inventory: Nationally, buyers have more homes to choose from than they did during the pandemic-era housing shortage.
💰 Affordability: Between home prices, borrowing costs, and everyday expenses, buyers are watching their budgets more closely than ever.
The challenge?
Many sellers still want yesterday's prices, while buyers are increasingly unwilling—or unable—to pay them.
And that creates a disconnect.
Pricing Is More Important Than Ever
A home can be beautiful, updated, and in a great neighborhood. But if buyers don't perceive it as a good value, they're much less likely to make an offer.
The market doesn't care what we want a home to be worth. It cares what buyers are willing and able to pay.
That's why understanding today's competition, pricing strategically, and being open to creative solutions is so important.
🔑 Two Recent Examples of a Changing Market
I've seen some interesting opportunities develop over the last couple of weeks.
1️⃣ A Goleta Buyer Gets a Great Opportunity
I recently helped a buyer get an offer accepted on a home in Goleta for well over $100,000 below the asking price.
But here's the really interesting part.
The seller also accepted an offer contingent on my buyer selling their current home first.
A few years ago, that would have been almost unheard of in our market!
Sellers were receiving multiple offers, often waiving contingencies, and buyers had very little leverage.
Today, some sellers are willing to consider terms they wouldn't have entertained during the hottest years of the market.
That's opportunity.
2️⃣ A Camarillo Seller Tests the Market
I also have a buyer interested in a condo in Camarillo.
We submitted an offer below asking, but the seller wasn't willing to accept it.
Two days later, the seller reduced the asking price by $10,000.
Still not enough to make the numbers work for my buyer.
So what did my buyer say?
"We'll wait."
And that's exactly what we're doing.
Sometimes the best move is making an offer. Other times, it's having the patience to walk away and see what happens.
🎯 The Bottom Line: Experience Creates Opportunity
This market isn't necessarily easy for buyers or sellers.
But challenging markets are often where the best opportunities can be found.
For sellers: Pricing, presentation, and flexibility matter more than ever.
For buyers: Don't assume the asking price is the final price. Understand your numbers, explore creative financing, and be willing to negotiate.
For everyone: Having an experienced professional in your corner can make a significant difference.
I may not be able to control interest rates, inventory, or the economy.
But after 16 years in real estate, I can help my clients navigate the challenges, recognize opportunities, and make informed decisions.
And just like coaching soccer, sometimes the most important thing I can do is come alongside someone and help them succeed.
If you're thinking about buying, selling, or investing in real estate, let's grab coffee and talk about your goals.
Enjoy the rest of Santa Barbara's beautiful fall weather! ☀️🍂
— Justin Etherton
Etherton Real Estate Group
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