Published January 8, 2026

New Year...New House?

Written by Justin Etherton

New Year...New You...New House?

View this email in your browser

New Year...New You... New House? 🏡

If 2025 ended feeling a little tough — you weren’t alone.

The end of December is usually slower in real estate… but not this year. I opened a new escrow right before Christmas and had multiple showings and inspections happening over the break (yes, even between holiday gatherings!).

And since the New Year? Things have picked up fast.

✅ More leads and inquiries already than much of last year
✅ Sellers are getting ready to hit the market
✅ Buyers are back, motivated, and eager to find a deal

I truly think the next 4–5 months are going to bring a steady increase in real estate activity. (I’m holding off on making pricing predictions just yet 😅)… but if interest rates keep trending down, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market really take off.

So if you’ve been waiting…
This might be your moment.

Thinking about selling? It could be a great time to get ahead of the crowd.
Thinking about buying? It may be smart to jump in before things get extra competitive.

My 2026 Goal: Help 25 Families

This year, my personal goal is to help 25 families reach their real estate goals — whether that means buying, selling, or starting to invest.

So if you (or someone you know) is thinking about making a move in 2026, let’s grab coffee and talk it through. No pressure — just real conversation, real strategy, and a plan.

☕🏡 Reply to this email and let’s connect!

I hope you had an amazing Christmas and New Year with your family. Ours was great… though we had a bit of a rough stretch thanks to some gnarly weather and a house full of sick kids (and yes… parents too 🤧).

Still, we got some much-needed quality time with family and friends — and I’m heading into this year feeling grateful and fired up.

Here’s to a healthy, exciting, and home-filled 2026! 🎉

Etherton Real Estate 15th Annual Canned Food Drive Results

This year our community was able to donate over 2,700 lbs of canned food. That brings our new total to over 137,794 lbs. of food for our community in need through the Santa Barbara Food Bank.

Thank you to all who participated.

You can still donate directly to Santa Barbara Food Bank Here.

Real estate investors who did over 50 deals in 2025 explain why they're shifting away from flips and leaning into the BRRRR method

By Kathleen Elkins
Business Insider

Key Points:

Mike Gorius and Kevin Hart closed 52 deals in 2024 and grossed about $500,000.
In 2025, they completed 54 deals but grossed just over $1 million by targeting larger deal sizes.
They’re not slowing down on volume, but they are shifting strategy for 2026.
In 2026, they expect to do fewer flips, unless the deal is an “absolute home run.”
Their primary market (Louisville) has cooled significantly since around September, making flips harder to exit quickly.
Local housing inventory rose from about 2,500 homes to nearly 3,900, increasing competition among sellers.
Days on market tripled, often stretching to over a month or two, which adds risk and holding costs for flippers.
They emphasize that in a slower market, it’s critical to buy at the right price, since overpriced homes can sit and require price cuts.
They plan to lean more into the BRRRR method (Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat) to reduce reliance on market timing.
BRRRR still has risks (rehab surprises, cost control, appraisal results), but they view it as a more predictable long-term wealth strategy than flipping.

Read the Full Article Here!

Trump says U.S. to ban large investors from buying homes

By Yun Li
CNBC+

President Donald Trump said the U.S. should bar large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, arguing that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans.

“For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday.

“It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations,” he added.

Private equity giants, real estate investment trusts and other large institutional investors have amassed sizable portfolios of single-family rental homes over the past decade. Many have argued that these investments have reduced housing supply for would-be homeowners and helped drive up prices.

Invitation Homes, which is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country, tumbled 6%. Shares of Blackstone, an investing firm that owns and rents single-family homes, dropped more than 5%. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management also declined over 5%.

Trump did not provide details on how such a ban would be implemented. Trump said he plans to outline additional housing and affordability proposals during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in two weeks. Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio said Wednesday he will introduce a bill to make it harder for larger investors to buy single family homes.

The national median existing single-family home price was $426,800 in the third quarter of 2025 after hitting a record high of $435,300 in the summer, according to the National Association of Realtors. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently at 6.19%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Blackstone was the largest private-equity owner of apartments in the U.S. with more than 230,000 units, according to data from the Private Equity Stakeholder Project released last year. Blackstone in recent years has spent billions acquiring real estate companies such as Tricon Residential, American Campus Communities and AIR Communities.

Read the Full Article Here!

Mortgage rates drift lower ahead of Fed’s December meeting

Economists say the market “widely expects” another rate cut — but the central bank will be making its next decision without key jobs and inflation data.

By Dave Gallagher
Real Estate News

Key points:

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% this week, bouncing around the lowest levels of the year.
Though the Fed lacks recent government-released labor market and inflation data, many investors still expect the central bank to cut short-term interest rates when officials meet next week.
Other real estate data indicates that the seasonal winter slowdown is underway as supply and demand both weaken.

While most consumers are turning their attention to the end-of-year holidays, a key economic decision slated for next week may set the tone for real estate in early 2026.

Investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut short-term interest rates by 25 basis points when it meets Dec. 9-10. That sentiment is showing up in mortgage rates, which have drifted down in recent days.

If the Fed does make the anticipated cut, it would be the central bank's third-straight 25-point cut — and third total of 2025 — as concerns about a slowing U.S. economy persist.

"A December rate cut, which the market widely expects, could take further pressure off of mortgage rates as the year comes to a close, boosting buying power as the new year approaches," said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com.

Next week's Fed meeting will also provide economic projections, which should offer some insight into where officials think the economy is heading based on the economic data they have.

30-year rate falls below 6.2%

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% this week, according to Freddie Mac. That's down from 6.23% the previous week and is among the lowest levels that mortgage rates have reached in 2025. One year ago, the rate averaged 6.69%.

Mortgage applications are meanwhile showing mixed results, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The seasonally adjusted rate was up 3% this week, but was also down at various points in November.

Fed to meet without recent jobs, inflation data

Fed officials will head into their December meeting without a solid picture on where things stand with the job market and inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' November jobs and inflation reports have both been delayed until mid-December as a result of the federal government shutdown.

Other sources offer partial views on the health of the labor market. According to the payroll processing firm ADP, the number of private employment jobs fell by 32,000 in November. ADP noted that November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional positions and construction. However, Department of Labor data released on Dec. 4 indicated that initial jobless claims fell to a three-year low last week.

These conflicting data points make it unclear whether the labor market is continuing to soften or is in a holding pattern.

Weaker supply, demand in the final weeks of 2025

When assessing other real estate metrics, it appears that the winter hibernation has arrived. Housing inventory is losing momentum, up just 5.1% compared to a year ago — the smallest year-over-year increase in nearly two years, according to Redfin data. Year-over-year pending sales for the four weeks ending on Nov. 30 were down 2.6% — the biggest drop in eight months.

Delistings remain elevated as many sellers appear unwilling to settle for a lower price. However, sellers continue to outnumber buyers, which provides some opportunities for those shopping around for a new home, according to Carlos Castillo, a Redfin Premier agent in Los Angeles.

"House hunters may be able to find a deal because there are more sellers than buyers, but I'm advising buyers to be strategic," Castillo said. "For instance, buyers can ask for concessions and offer less than the asking price, but don't lowball too much. Around 4% less than list price is pretty standard in the Los Angeles area right now."

What people are saying!

Here are some of our recent client testimonials!

Click here for more info!

ANOTHER SUCCESS STORY!!!

Congratulations to Casey and Sheng on the purchase of this amazing 6 bedroom home in the Hope Ranch Annex. We were able to secure you almost $300k off the purchase price. Thank you for the opportunity to help you.

I can't wait to see how you turn this house into a home!